Throwing Darts

I haven't blogged in a couple of weeks and I'd like to apologize to both my readers (and say hi to you mom!). I've replaced late night blogging with late night coding. Some of the coding has been on InstantEncore and some has been on my new pet project Should I Watch.

I've also been making my rounds on the internet. To see my holiday spirit, go to picture 18 on the Jeff and Jer show's ugly holiday sweater contest (here). Erin encouraged me to dust off the sweater I found last year. The winner of the contest gets $500, but there are some other good ones and I'd say my chances of winning are nill.

I also recently had a "bleg" of mine posted on the Freakonomics blog. If you haven't read the book Freakonomics I highly recommend it. It has made me ask "why" more often. The question I "blegged" was whether there is such a thing as too much data (I asked in relation to the Should I Watch website). A lot of people left insightful comments, so check those out. Thanks again to the freakonomics guys for taking the time to post and answer the bleg. I highly recommend checking out their blog regularly.

In other internet news, Erick Rarick, a co-worker of mine at InstantEncore, was recently on the news in San Diego. The music group he is a part of, Bach Collegium San Diego, was doing a Handel's Messiah concert and the news did a feature about it. You can view the news clip here. Erick is the very first person they show during the piece.

Lastly, I'd like to give a big congratulations to my mom. She was named Alameda Realtor of the year 2008. I think it's even more impressive given the slow down in the economy. Mom always said the bad times were good because it filtered out the realtors who couldn't cut it. Well, clearly mom, you make the cut. I hope they give you a big trophy like when a team wins the championship.

Looking ahead, I've been wanting to write a blog of hydro foiling sailboats. My brother in law, Sean, has been designing (and now sailing) one in NZ and it's one of the coolest things I've seen. Hope to get that out by Christmas. If I don't talk to everyone before then, hope you have a wonderful holiday!

Sometimes Bad is Bad

Let this be a lesson to everyone out there. Don't blog when tired. I actually wrote the following blog...

--------------------------------

It's 1:10am. I'm failing at prettying up the user interface that I'm working on. The team I played ball for tonight lost by 50 (I'm not exaggerating). And the Warriors lost in excruciating fashion in overtime. I'm convinced the coach is losing on purpose. On the bright side, I'm rocking out to Huey Lewis... but of course the current song is "Bad is Bad." Go figure.

At least I'm content knowing that Sports is the coolest name ever for album.

Lessons from Wall Street: Don't write checks for the Auto Companies

I recently read an insightful (and entertaining) article by Michael Lewis about the financial crisis. Actually, it's about people who saw the crisis coming and how they made a fortune off of it. It's a lot more fun to read a story about the crisis from that perspective. You can read the story here. I highly recommend, just for the fact that Lewis is a great writer and makes the story interesting while explaining how we got into this mess.

As an aside, Lewis is the author of Money Ball, a book about how the cash strapped A's managed to stay competitive in baseball by being smarter and applying math, reason, and an outsiders perspective. Another good read.

Back to the story, here is an excerpt from the article about how obvious it was that the housing bubble couldn't last.

At the end of 2004, Eisman, Moses, and Daniel shared a sense that unhealthy things were going on in the U.S. housing market: Lots of firms were lending money to people who shouldn’t have been borrowing it. They thought Alan Greenspan’s decision after the internet bust to lower interest rates to 1 percent was a travesty that would lead to some terrible day of reckoning. Neither of these insights was entirely original. Ivy Zelman, at the time the housing-market analyst at Credit Suisse, had seen the bubble forming very early on. There’s a simple measure of sanity in housing prices: the ratio of median home price to income. Historically, it runs around 3 to 1; by late 2004, it had risen nationally to 4 to 1. “All these people were saying it was nearly as high in some other countries,” Zelman says. “But the problem wasn’t just that it was 4 to 1. In Los Angeles, it was 10 to 1, and in Miami, 8.5 to 1. And then you coupled that with the buyers. They weren’t real buyers. They were speculators.” Zelman alienated clients with her pessimism, but she couldn’t pretend everything was good. “It wasn’t that hard in hindsight to see it,” she says. “It was very hard to know when it would stop.” Zelman spoke occasionally with Eisman and always left these conversations feeling better about her views and worse about the world. “You needed the occasional assurance that you weren’t nuts,” she says. She wasn’t nuts. The world was.

Sometimes the facts are right in your face and you choose to ignore them. I hope we can learn this lesson from the housing/financial crisis and apply it to the auto industry. I've come to the conclusion that we don't want to give the auto companies $25 billion dollars.

At first I saw the hundreds of thousands (or possibly millions) of jobs that relied on the auto companies and thought that they justified saving the companies. However, American car companies don't have a business model that can turn that into profit. They are fundamentally flawed and giving them $25 billion dollars would be like feeding the habit of a drug addict. Even if they switched to making small, fuel efficient cars they are still saddled by enormous contracts and liabilities to the unions that make them uncompetitive with the foreign car companies. It should be plain to see that the car companies can't succeed when they are paying thousands of dollars per car extra to cover union liabilities that their competitors don't. Giving the auto industry the money would be like buying a house in the fall of 2006 (Sorry Tim and Ross - at least you guys can afford it!)

So what to do? Let's them file for bankruptcy, reorganize, re-negotiate with the unions, fire the current managers, and take advantage of the large infrastructure that they have, but apply a feasible business model. It's not that simple, but anything will be better than prolonging their incompetence at the tax payer's expense. At some point you have to pull the band-aid off. Hopefully it can be done in a responsible way that will save most of the jobs. Here is a post on the Freakonomics blog about that issue.

Last point. The problem with the automakers also parallels the financial/housing crisis in one other area: greed. If the car companies want to succeed without going under they need to renegotiate with the unions. Of course, the unions will balk at this because they won't give up the sweet deals they already have. Instead, they'll decline to negotiate and both sides will lose when the company goes into bankruptcy. Then again, it's hard to fault the unions when you know the car companies would be selfish too, if they could. Just another reason I want to see someone else take over these companies and start fresh.

BONUS FUN FACT:
GM employees 123,000 people. If the gov't shut GM down and gave each worker $50,000 dollars to cover costs and find a new job it would cost about $6 billion. This would probably be money better spent than the $25 billion GM is asking for. Got the idea from here.

Here is Michael Lewis on The Colber Report:

The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c

Michael Lewis

Colbert at Christmas
Colbert Christmas DVD

Green Screen
Bill O'Reilly Interview

The new #22

As a kid, "22" was the most important number to me. Whenever I played on a sports team I tried to get that number. Its importance may even explain my slight fetish for palindromic numbers. And yes, palindromic is a word, I looked it up.

What made "22" special? It was the number worn by my childhood hero Will Clark. The Thrill, as he was known, played my favorite position, first base and was the best player on the Giants during my formidable years. I would show you some videos, but baseball is stupid and has pulled all of them from YouTube. Anyway, for further proof of my infatuation, the combination to my bike lock was 1-2-2 and I always remembered it by saying #1 is #22.

So why is the #22 important to me again? Anthony Morrow.

He's the undrafted rookie on the Warriors who scored 37 points on Saturday to lead the Warriors over the Clippers in his first NBA start. He followed it up with any 25 tonight in a victory over the Blazers and he would have had more if Nellie would have played him in the 4th quarter. Oh, and he wears #22.

Morrow is a pure shooter, in the Ray Allen or Chris Mullin mold. Everytime he touches the ball I am excited and I rarely have been this impressed (kiddy, really) by a player I had never heard of before. In fact, Morrow didn't even make my Warriors Preview blog. But don't take my word for it, watch his highlights from Saturday's game.

To say my level of enthusiasm for Morrow is high would be an understatement. Between getting married, Obama being elected and now Morrow I'd have to say this is shaping up to be a great year. Some of my favorite Morrow-related comments on www.WarriorsWorld.net today were:

• "Where does Morrow rank among NBA greats?"
• "Can Morrow be elected into the hall of fame yet?"
• "He will make 22 of 20 shots tonight" (in response to a question for predictions)
• "Morrow woke up and three Blazers were guarding him, and when he went to the kitchen Greg Oden was there" (referring to the fact that the blazers would need to be guarding him tight)

Don't say I didn't warn you, it's going to be beautiful toMORROW.

Gear Heart

Got this from my friend Tim. One of the most amazing works of art I've ever seen. Nothing else to say about it, just watch the video.

George W. Bush Sewage Treatment Plant

With the election just a couple days away I would like to tell everyone about San Francisco's Prop R. If it passes, the sewage plant will be renamed in honor of George W. Bush.



For the record, I would actually vote against it. First, it's demeaning to the people who work there - and trust me, I appreciate their work. And secondly, it would cost $50,000 to redo the signs, letterhead, etc. However, just the fact that this is on the ballot of one of the biggest cities in the country is a telling anecdote to the end of a pathetic presidency.

UPDATE:
This may turn the tide for the Pro-R side: The San Francisco Peace and Freedom Party is is urging you to vote YES on R.

82 and 0

Basketball season is about to start and since I've spent the last two months boring you with political blogs, I'll now bore you for the next 6 months with Warriors blogs. Ask Erin, the season goes on forever. Actually, the start of the basketball season always comes at a convenient time. In 2004 the season started the day after the election. It was a good thing too, as it's probably the only reason I didn't fall into a deep depression. In honor of the new season here is a preview of the Warriors 08-09 team.

A few years ago when the Warriors won their season opener against the Spurs I called my friends to celebrate. What I remember most is my buddy Scott Eanes' famous prediction for the rest of the season, 82-0. (For those of you new to the NBA, there are 82 games in a season).

This season, I honestly don't know what to expect. My gut tells me not to be too optimistic though. Don't get me wrong, I'll watch all 82 games, but my expectations aren't high - which is a good thing for Warriors fans. There are a lot of new faces this season (and some notable missing ones) so I thought I'd introduce you to a few of them.

No longer with the team:
Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Patrick O'Bryant (and probably some others that aren't important enough to remember). It's going to hurt not having Baron. I'm pissed that he opted out of his contract one year early. I would have liked one more year, but I'm glad from a financial stand point that we didn't sign him to a long term contract. Too injury prone, too three point shooting prone. With that said, Baron did a ton for the team and I'll miss him. When he's motivated he's a top player in the league, and it's going to suck watching him dominate the Warriors four times a year (assuming he's healthy).

Kelenna Azubuike

I'm excited to have 'Buke back on the team. He's a poor man's Jason Richardson at 1/3 the price. He can take it strong to the basket and has decent range. Plus he's not such a super star that he skips out on defense. A team of 5 Bukes wouldn't be very good, but you need at least one. Plus, here's an interesting fact, his nickname is "London Gentlemen" from the fragarence in Anchorman (because he's from the UK).

Andris Biedrins (Beans)

If I were to buy a Warriors jersey (which I won't do, because that means the player will get injured or traded) I would probably buy a Beans jersey. I try to model my basketball game after him. On the team I play with I'm the tall one, I'm not asked to shoot and as long as I play good defense, rebound, and get shots for the little guys on the team everyone is happy. And it doesn't hurt when I get some points cleaning up boards and on the fastbreak. The good news for the Warriors is that I expect Bean's offensive game to open up even more now that Baron Davis's 20 shots per game are missing. I'm excited to watch the big Latvian play.

Corey Maggette

When the Clippers signed our best player (Baron Davis) we panicked and signed their best remaining player, Corey Maggette. I'm a little conflicted about Mags. On the plus side, he is a very efficient scorer, makes his free throws, and looks like Xzibit. On the negative side, he's never played for a good team, is injury prone, and I'm not sold on him sacrificing in any way to make the team better. I hope I am wrong, but I just don't see the Warriors being succesful if he's our first or second best player. I bet he scores a ton, doesn't do anything bad off the court, and yet leads us nowhere near the playoffs. (Optimism, it's what a new season is all about). At least between him and Buke we'll have the most ripped players.

DeMarcus Nelson

Let me introduce you to our starting point guard. We've gone from Baron to someone I have barely heard of. I know just a little more about him than I did about Sarah Palin when she was named VP. At least she's second string, this guy starts. DeMarcus is a rookie and he went to Duke, that's all I know. I'm not even sure the picture I posted is really him. However, from the preseason reports, it sounds like he's a monster on defense and that would be a first for a Warriors gaurd. Also, I don't think he shoots a lot of threes which is a nice change. It's possible the Warriors will have great ball movement and a smooth offense with this guy. It's also possible that the complete lack a point gaurd will doom us and we win 18 games. I'm praying it's option 1.

Anthony Randolph

AR is part of the reason I have hope for the future. We picked him at #14 in the draft this year, and I don't know how he fell so low. He's tall, athletic and seems to have the mindset to a be a superstar. I guarantee at least 10 teams will be kicking themselves that they didn't pick him. There are two reasons to be cautious in his rookie year. First, he's almost 7' tall and barely weighs 200 pounds. He's going to get pushed around a lot. The saving grace is that because he's so athletic he can play smaller players instead of banging around with the power forwards and centers. The other problem is that coach Don Nelson never plays rookies. Let's hope Nellie gives him time to develop because let's be honest, we aren't winning the championship this year. If he does get time to play, he'll be exciting to watch.

Ronny Turiaf

In a surprise move, the Warriors have signed The Predator to be their backup center/power forward. Oh just kidding, it's Ronny Turiaf (who played for the Lakers last year). I actaully love the signing. Turiaf is one of those players that you hated when he was on the other team (especially when that team is the Lakers), but he's gonna be a fan favorite in Oakland. He brings a ton of energy and the size/strength to match up with the other big players who usually dominate us. He's not a superstar, but he's a great guy to have on your team.

Monta Ellis

Have you noticed that I haven't written about a superstar on the Warriors yet. Well, the closest thing we have to one is Monta. Unfortunately, that was before his tragic moped acident this summer that destroyed his leg. I can't get over this, it's not possible. I genuinely think I could have talked myself into the Warriors have a good season if Monta had been healthy. It's much more difficult now. He's out for at least three months, and possibly the whole season. All we can do is hope that next year he comes back with the same explosiveness that made him one of my favorite players to watch.

Al Harrington

I'd write something about Al, but he's going to be traded so why bother. I will say that he looks like a ninja turtle, though.

Don Nelson

As long as the Warriors have Nellie at the helm I'll be excited. When the Warriors signed him a couple of years ago I remember thinking that there wasn't another player they could have signed that would have made me more excited. Nellie is best when he has to experiment and tinker with a squad that on paper won't cut it. Well, he has that squad and if anyone can make them exciting to watch, and maybe even a playoff team it's him. Another reason I like Nellie, he once owned a pig as a pet - I've always wanted a pet pig.


Well, I'm not going to promise that team will win a championship, or even make the playoffs. However, I hope I've helped you find someone on the team you can take an interest in. When you watch the team for 82 games you get to know them pretty well and I looked forward to having an addition 15 guys in my extended family for the next 6 months. Erin on the other, not quite as excited.