How I follow the election

As you may know, I love the internet. Its greatest gift to mankind is the ability to share information and that makes it one of the most useful instruments in democracy's toolbox. The problem is how to sort through and filter out the crap. If you only read fringe-lunatic blogs or Faux New's website then you'd probably be better off living in a dictatorship. So today, I'm writing about a few of the websites I check out to stay on top of the election.

Real Clear Politics - www.realclearpolitics.com
I use this site mainly for its "poll of polls". Polls have their flaws (and issues are more important), but if you are trying to gauge how the election is going a poll is very effective. Because polls can be variable, Real Clear Politics averages out all the polls to create their RCP Average poll. And they do this not just at the national level but the state level, too. This allows them to make a prediction on the electoral college too, which is really what matters. Here is their cool Electoral College Map. You can choose to view it with or without the "toss-up" states.

Intrade Prediction Markets - www.intrade.com
Intrade is a prediction market website. Basically, people can buy stock in the likely hood of an event happening. If it does happen, then you receive the full value of the stock you have and if it doesn't happen you get $0. The price of the stock fluctuates depending on how likely people believe the event will happen. As the demand for an outcome increases, the price to buy that stock increases too.

So take the current presidential election. If you predict the winner correctly you will get $10. To buy a share in Barack Obama it will cost you about $5.70 right now. To buy a share in John McCain costs about $4.10. Other candidates, like Hillary, make up the other $0.20.

So basically, people who are betting their own money think there is a 57% chance Obama will be prez, and a 41% chance McCain will win. Here is a chart of Obama's prices.

The cool thing about intrade is that they have markets for all sorts of events, such as:

• will the US fall into a depression
• will a movie gross over $100 million dollars
• will Virgin Galatic send paying customers into space orbit by 2011

The Economist www.economist.com
While I do get the print edition as well, the website has the same content. The Economist is one of my three most trusted media news sources (with The News Hour w/ Jim Lehrer and NPR). A lot of the content on the web is free, and a full online subscription is a lot cheaper than the print version so I'd highly recommend you check it out. The only problem with the online version is you can't take it in with you to the bathroom - I do NOT take my laptop in there!

WarriorsWorld Politics Forum - www.forums.warriorsworld.net/politics
I actually don't recommend you visit it. It takes some getting used to and you have to have thick skin. It definitely has a liberal bias (it's the bay area!) but I find a lot of great links to other info and a healthy amount of debate. If you prefer not to venture into its cold, dangerous waters then just keep coming back to this blog, I post lots of interesting things that I find on WarriorsWorld. For instance, here is a fascnating article from the Washington Post about McCain's trip back to DC after he suspended his campaign and what went down when all the leaders met.

That's all I've got for now. If anything else interesting pops up I'll let you know. If you have any sites you'd recommend please post a comment about it.

Obama Biker-Sticker

I was going to suspend my blog writing so that I could go to Washington to help work out the financial deal. But let's be honest, they don't need me there (and they could probably do without two presidential campaigns, too). If it was a foreign affairs problem though I'd be right there - after all I can see Mexico from San Diego.

But instead of marching to DC, I've decided to show my support for Obama (and the country) in a totally hippie way - by sporting the Obama Biker-Sticker.

It's just a normal bumper sticker that I've adopted for my favorite mode of transportation. Now, I'll be the first to admit that I could do more to save the world, but for me getting on the bike at least shows I'm willing to put in a little leg work (literally) for the cause. Whether I bike to work a couple of days a week or not doesn't affect the global supply of oil and amount of pollution from cars. However, in the end the only thing I can control is myself and I don't want anyone to say I wasn't trying.

And why an Obama sticker and not a McCain one? Well, you'll have to wait for a future blog post on that one.

My blog version of the Daily Show

The Daily Show is a comedy show that at it's heart preaches liberal politics by showing videos that make fun of conservatives. I thought I'd do my blog version of that.

Here are of some of the YouTube political videos I've seen in the past 6 months. Conservatives, beware of heavy Obama footage. Actually, just get used it, there's about 8 more years of this.

NOTE: some of the videos have objectionable language. I don't condone it, but I might have laughed (these are the warnings you need when you know you mom might be reading this).

Without further ado, let's get started (in order of when I saw them, oldest to newest)...

The Empire Strikes Barak
This one is back from the primary and shows how Obama defeated the forces of evil.


Obama Brushes the Dirt off his Shoulders
This one starts from a campaign speech he was giving where he brushes off the attacks on him. It's an allusion to the Jay-Z song, and the end of the video is a montage with that and another Jay-Z song "99 Problems".

This one has bad language and sexist remarks.



Obama responds to Tire Inflation Attacks
In this clip Obama responds to republican idiots (Limbaugh, etc) who made fun of him for suggesting that inflating tires would reduce our need for oil. He ends it with the classic line, "It's like they take pride in being ignorant".



John McCain gets Barack Roll'd
If you don't know what getting Rick Roll'd is, click here and then click here for an explanation. This video does some amazing video editing to show McCain getting Barack Roll'd at the Republican National Convention.



The First Dude
This might be the funniest of them all. It's an "interview" by Greta Van Susteren with Todd Palin. It might be the worst interview ever. You might be asking yourself, "in what respect, Evan?". Well, watch the video and find out.



Soulja Boy Responds to the Worst Presidential Debate Ever
Do you remember the Democratic primary debate between Clinton and Obama where ABC News spent half the time on stupid questions. Well, Soulja Boy (or someone pretending to be him) watched it and this is his response.

You have NO new mail

I did the impossible - I cleaned out my inbox. I even have a picture for proof:



Truth be told, I actaully have a pretty clean inbox most of the time. I use my inbox as a todo list. I keep stuff in there until I've completed whatever task is in the email - either personal or business. Once I've finished what the email requires I tag it and archive it (Gmail users know what I mean). It's a pretty good system for me. And what you can learn is that if you need me to do something, send me an email. Until I've done what you've asked it will sit in the inbox and I HATE the clutter that creates.

I had a message from a friend that was probably two months old (pictures from his trip to China) that was the last thing I had to respond to.

Anyway, it's rare that all the messages get cleared out so I thought I'd share.

Who is that voice?

So I'm listening to a new recording on InstantEncore and a very recognizable voice is doing the intro... it's Dick Enberg, the famous sportscaster. Many people are listening to him this week as he calls a lot of the U.S. Open with John McEnroe.

Anyways, the concert is from La Jolla Music Society's Summerfest series. Check it out not just for Dick Enberg, but also the great music. Everyone should recognize "Appalachian Spring" by Aaron Copland. They should be posting music from more of their concerts soon.

Here's the link.

falling from 160 feet...

...if the German's were naming Bungee jumping that's what they would call it, except all the words would be stuck together. Anyway, this post is about the bungee jump that we did for Tim's bachelor party last week. I guess we figured, Tim's taking the plunge, so why shouldn't we all? I will not be writing about the rest of the weekend (ha!).

Luckily for everyone there is documentation of the event.



I've decided that I will provide a little commentary for everyone:

Opening
The setting: Whistler, Canada. Not sure who's jump this is, maybe it's not even one of us. The important thing is the music. Thank God "The Final Countdown" by Europe. It's without a doubt the greatest song of all time. I was watching MTV once (this must have been like 5 years ago at least) and they were doing a thing on one-hit-wonders and they started talking about Europe. I guess they relied on this song so much that they both opened and closed with it at their shows.

Now we have the run down of the participants looking at the site of their impending death (in order of appearance): Evan, Tim, Julian, Brian, Mike and Verwest. Ross didn't jump because he busted his knee playing lacrosse (surgery is tomorrow so think good thoughts for him). However that did allow him to be the Steven Spielberg of our jumps.

Quick montage of all the jumps
Maybe my favorite part of the video. What good use of foreshadowing!

Verwest's jump
Being that Eric is the only one of us to take the figurative plunge so far it made sense for him to take the literal plunge first. I'm actually impressed by his jump. It's smooth and clean. Definitely the Nastia Liukin of the group. The only bad thing is we don't get a Jersey Fist Pump out of it (here is some background). The Jersey Fist Pump makes many appearances in the video and definitely was the theme of our weekend.

Tim's jump
Now it's time for the bachelor to go. First off, his picture definitely shows an epic fist pump, well done. As for the jump, hopefully Tim isn't as nervous for the wedding as he was for this jump. I wish we could have tied a cat to his cord, he definitely would have lost it then. With that said, Sandra has nothing to worry about. When faced with the figurative plunge Tim stands tall and takes care of business. He also invented a new pose for the jump. I also love the timing with the music when Tim returns into the picture after going into the bridge, brilliant! Finally, excellent fist pumping on the rebound.

Mike
Don't worry everyone, that's apple juice Mike is drinking. For starters, we see another good fist pump. I'm glad everyone kept their wits about them when facing the jump and represented The Shore. Unfortunately for Mike, something got caught. He just barely averted disaster thanks to his cat like reflexes. Luckily, the second attempt is better. I gained a lot of appreciation for Mike's swimming abilities during the weekend. It turns out he swam and played water polo in high school. He was swimming circles around us when we went down to the lake. His experience shows in his jump. A perfect dive. Mike is the Greg Louganis of the group.

Evan
Well, that is a sexy picture. I was trying to do my best Jersey Shore Guy imitation in the picture. Erin saw it and said I looked creepy. I guess I accomplished my goal. Before my jump I pictured my self running off the plank and jumping out as far as I could. I was really trying to psych myself into that. However, when faced with the reality, I was happy that I made it off without any delay. It looks more like I just ran off the board. I'm not a fan of heights. I had never done anything like that before so I was trying to relate it to something beforehand. I though maybe it would be like the weightless feeling in a pool. Well, it's not. It's the exact opposite. Falling with nothing below you for an eternity is terrifying. I was very happy when the cord took my weight (my groin was not). I redeemed myself a bit with a good fist pump on the rebound.

Brian
I'm speechless after that montage. He really got into the whole Jersey Shore thing. Maybe a little too easily. I'll let it slide though because he did the most acrobatic jump. Brian is the Shawn Johnson of the group. He did have experience on his side though. I guess he did a bunch of jumps when he went to Auz for a semester. The flying squirrel jump is awesome. Even the workers liked it. Hats off to Brian, he was the champ.

Julian
The picture of Julian before his jump is from his failed attempt to tackle me the night before. Apparently being out of SD for a couple years caused him to forget how much taller than him we all are. On our way back to the cabin after the jump (before we saw the replay) Julian was telling us about his jump. He said his body just went limp and he had no control over it . You can really see it in the video too. He's just a falling mass. Fortunately he regained control of his body and pulls out a Fist Pump on the rebound.

All in all it was epic!

Congrats Ryan and Jill

It's gotten a little less fanfare than some other pregnancies lately, but this one is way more important to me. Ryan and Jill just had their baby, Kalea (Ka-lay-a) Faye Leighton. The baby is seven pounds fifteen ounces (not 17 as Ryan first reported!). Thanks to modern technology I have a picture that Ryan texted me. It might be the cutest baby ever. I look forward to seeing the new family.



Ryan and Jill are actually the first friends of mine to have a kid. Considering I'm 27 that seems fairly remarkable. I will leave it to the social commentators to tell us what that means. Of course, given my history (8 years of dating anyone?) it's no surprise that I think the patience and restraint shown by friends is impressive. Or perhaps that Christian Sexuality class at Bishop O'Dowd freshman year just really had an impact on us all. Leave it to my Catholic high school to teach sex ed the year before they taught their Christian Morality class. Whatever the case, perhaps the young Miss Palin would have been better off in a liberal religious school than abstinence only classes.

Anyways, I've digressed. The point of this post is great job Ryan and Jill. If the kid turns out half as good as you guys then the world will be a better place.